Losing runs betting sites
It could be that you are applying a strategy that just doesn't work, or are making bad decisions. Find the Problem Getting to the bottom of why you are losing is probably the hardest part of dealing with bad runs. If you've recently changed your selection criteria and suddenly start losing most of your wagers, then it should be fairly obvious that your new approach isn't working. But not every problem is going to be that easy to spot. I'll give you an example of a bad run I once had some years back.
I had been having a really good season betting on the English Premier League soccer ; but during the last few matches of the season, I was picking a lot fewer winners. I'd get some right, but nowhere near the consistency I'd been having throughout the season. This was only over a relatively short period, and it certainly wasn't a disastrous run, but I was convinced there was an issue I was missing. I was still a relatively inexperienced bettor, and I couldn't seem to work out the problem.
It wasn't like there had been a load of huge upsets, and I hadn't changed my selection criteria at all. I ended up asking someone else to take a look for me, and they found out what was happening. My success that season largely came down to picking the winners of matches where the opposition teams were relatively closely matched. Towards the end of the season, when I had started losing more bets than winning, there were several teams that basically had nothing to play for in the league.
They were safe from relegation but not threatening the top positions. A number of them had been drawing or losing the matches theyd been winning earlier in the season, and this was costing me. I hadnt taken into account the possibility that these teams might not be as motivated as I would usually expected.
The point I'm trying to make here is that you have to be prepared to analyze the smallest details if you really want to get to the bottom of what may be causing your bad run. This can take a lot of time, but it may prove to be time well spent. I can't really offer any more advice than this respect unfortunately. The number of factors that could cause a losing streak is virtually limitless, and the only way to way to find out what is behind any particular streak is simply to keep investigating until you uncover the problem.
Stay in Control and Consider your Options What arguably is the single most important thing you need to do when dealing with a bad run is to maintain your discipline. It is all too easy to let frustration get the better of you as you start chasing your losses, but this is only likely to make the situation worse.
If you are struggling to find the cause of your losing streak, then you need to keep calm and stay in control. Your only chance of turning things around is if you make rational decisions and consider your options. Your first option is to keep on betting the way you have been in the hope that things will turn around.
If you genuinely think you are doing the right things and are just having some bad luck, then this is a perfectly viable option. It's a good idea to reduce your stakes, however, and to slow down your rate of losses, and you should set a point at which you'll accept things are not going to turn around. If things do turn around, that's great. You've managed to get through a bad run and, hopefully, have prevented too much damage to your bankroll.
If things don't turn around for whatever reason, it's time to think again. At this point there are several things you can try. You could bet on a different sport or adopt some different strategies. You shouldn't be too disheartened just because one approach hasn't worked well, as there is more than one way to make money from sports betting. It's always worth employing a new approach if you still have confidence in your betting skills. What is the probability of losing?
The expectation of losing sequences Analysing losses with real world betting histories All bettors have to deal with losses, no matter how skilled they are. Some bettors may experience losing runs that are longer than others, but how long can we expect a losing run to last in betting? Read on to find out. Winning a bet is a nice feeling. Losing, however, is considered to be twice as painful, psychologically speaking, as winning is enjoyed. Even for potentially skilled bettors with positive expectation on their side, losing runs could lead them to irrationally question the efficacy of their betting system.
Hardly anyone would bother to question an over-performing system. In this article, I want to complement that work with a simple modelling of losing runs, and more specifically how long we might expect one to last. What are drawdowns and how do you manage them? I have limited myself here in order to keep things simple. At least with the simplest losing run, however, we can offer some basic mathematical formulae to describe them, difficult with more complex scenarios.
In other words, they are achieving fair odds. Odds of 2. The probability of winning k consecutive bets each with odds o is then given by: For example, the probability of winning five consecutive fair even-money bets with odds of 2.
But here we are interested in losing bets. For odds of 2. More generally, the odds of winning and losing are not the same.
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For odds of 2. More generally, the odds of winning and losing are not the same. Given that the probability of losing is 1 minus the probability of winning, it follows that the odds of losing are given by the expression: Thus, the probability of losing k consecutive bets each with odds o is given by: The expectation of losing sequences What is the probability of having k or more consecutive losses in a sample of n wagers of odds o?
It turns out that the mathematics for this is not trivial, and well beyond my pay grade. But we can ask the question in a slightly different way, and for that the mathematics is much easier. Read: Why bettors need to learn how to lose Consider a simple example. How many times can we expect to lose three bets in a row, each with odds of 2. However, in a series of 10 bets there are numerous opportunities to build a three-bet losing sequence.
It could happen on bets one, two and three, or on bets two, three and four, and so on up to bets eight, nine and In other words, on average we would expect to have one three-bet losing sequence every 10 bets. Sometimes there will be more, and sometimes there will be none, but the average will be one. Since the number of bets, n, is roughly proportional to the expected number of losing sequences of length k, we would expect about 62 five-bet losing streaks in 2, bets, and around 93 in 3, bets.
For 1, bets with odds of 2. In other words, in a sample of 1, bets we can typically expect the longest losing sequence of losses to comprise 10 bets. For odds of 3. Odds of 5. Do you think you could handle a sequence of 31 consecutive losers without getting cold feet about what you were doing? The table below compares the results for different values of k.
Sometimes the overwhelming urge to make up for continuing losses just leads you to make rash and desperate bets in an attempt to right a sinking ship. But there is no rush to do so, simply take a look and study new streaks which are happening, perhaps there is something that you are missing. Sports betting does not provide any certainties and sometimes you simply have to adjust.
Sometimes there is no rhyme or reason for what is happening to wagers, and you just have to grin and bear it. This is the challenge of sports betting, and of course you have to be aware of the risk involved. One other piece of advice would be to indulge some time in finding yourself a good online betting website. When you can read previews of sporting events written by experts, then you can pick up some good advice from them.
There may be valuable little tips in their writing which can help you get back on track. Perhaps you can find a trusted tipster that will help you break out of the losing cycle. There are extremely valuable bits of information to be picked up, and having a helping hand in planning your betting strategy is nothing to be afraid of looking at. Winning streaks and losing streaks happen to everyone, no matter how experienced a bettor you are.
Sport is unpredictable and in a way you have to work that unpredictability in your wagers and your betting strategies. Do not panic bet. Take a breath and a step back to assess what may be going wrong with your system.
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