Lay betting staking plans loss
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Gothenburg has 2 horses Nawaaf and Quest for success installed as 2nd and 3rd favourites — these could be likely challengers. Compare this to traditional backing. In an ideal world we would be, as layers, looking for horses priced below, say, odds of 3. I bet the thought has already crossed your mind about laying outsiders — come on, own up now!
The prices indicate that this looks like a 3 horse race between Gothenburg, Nawaaf, and Quest for Success. If this is the case, why not lay Another decree? If Another Decree loses we win the figure in Green. How is this calculated? Simply take 1 from the odds of 22 and multiply by the stake. You really do have a high likelihood of this lay being a good one for you, but a concerted campaign of laying horses at odds of 20 or above will, one day ,come to bite you on the backside.
Below is a real life example, again from Ayr, to remind you that outsiders do win! Can you see now how important liability control is? So what have we learned so far? In my example above, remember I mentioned Gothenburg as a possible lay — why? Well, I mentioned the fact this was a maiden race and none of the horses had won before ; I mentioned the fact that the 2nd and 3rd favourites was quite short in price which is indicative that they cannot really be dismissed from our calculations.
Further, there are 2 debutants who literally could be the dark horses. I personally would factor in the race distance. If Gothenburg were to be slowly into stride when the race starts, the horse has a diminishing distance with which to redress the balance. Is there any evidence to dissuade us from laying Gothenburg? Well, the horse has come 2nd in its last 2 races. This indicates to me that the potential is there for the horse to win sooner rather than later.
Again we face this liability control issue. We should get a better strike rate if we focus on bigger priced horses which is great, BUT we have to prepare for the odd big payout should our bigger priced lay have the temerity to win its race. Can we chose elsewhere? Well, Nawaaf and Quest for success are ideally priced. We have a few options here. Use the what now? For this reason it is of interest to Betaminic Users, but it is more complicated than other staking plans.
You can vary the percentage increase and you can vary the number of bets to judge it over. You can also have staggered increases as the win rate can be judged over the last 5, 10, 20, 30 or 50 bets, and different percentage increases allotted for each period. You can also decrease stakes when above the historical win rate. There is a very wide number of setting possibilities, so research is needed, or you can see the best settings in the book.
It is essentially a very slow and gradual progressive recovery system. The LP28 series looks like this: An easier way to think of it is , which is the number of losses until an increase in stakes occurs. In theory, if you lose 28 bets in a row, it comes to the end of the series and we reset back to the start. You bet more as your bank increases and bet less if the bank gets depleted.
But by staking different percentages depending on the average odds of your betting system, even better results can be achieved. Again, the correct settings are needed. The stake is adjusted so that a target profit is achieved. You win the same profit each time whatever the odds are. If there are big odds, you bet less to win the same as betting a large stake on lower odds. Betting more on safer bets and less on riskier bets. This uses betting capital more efficiently.
Since it is odds sensitive, the betting capital is used efficiently. It is simple to use and protects the bank due to its percentage staking aspect. The important part is knowing the correct settings, which we can share below in this article. You just stake according to the odds of your next bet as a proportion of your current betting bank. By staking different amounts depending on the odds band, the betting capital is used in the best way.
This new staking plan is being added to the The Staking Machine software as an addition to the Secure Staking plan settings, so you can test betting strategies by running the historical data through the program. For a more detailed explanation and the correct settings, please see the book. It is much more efficient to use a staking plan that varies the size of stakes in direct relation to the odds of the bet Whitaker Staking and Secure Staking , or to use different staking plans for different odds brackets to indirectly vary the size of stakes in relation to the odds.
In the very simplest terms, bet more on lower odds and bet less on higher odds. See our article: Martingale, Fibonacci and other staking plans you should not use. That kind of stake focussed recovery betting ends up being less efficient as the initial stake levels are pushed lower to avoid bankruptcy later on, so the overall profit will be lower than with other non-recovery staking plans.
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